Every Third Car Sold in US Could Be Electric by 2027 1

Every Third Car Sold in US Could Be Electric by 2027

Posted Friday, Jul 5, 2024 by Jeff Safire

VW vehicle vending machine

July 2, 2024
By Corey Cantor, Electric Vehicles, BloombergNEF

The slowdown in US electric vehicle sales may be a mere blip. They could make up almost a third of new car sales by 2027, according to BloombergNEF’s latest electric vehicle outlook, assuming the current policies remain in place. Electric vehicles accounted for 10% of new US car sales last year.

The modest near term growth gives way to a much stronger momentum as new EV models — with many in the “affordable” category — are launched by Ford, Rivian and Tesla, while the local manufacturing capacity of automakers like Hyundai, BMW or Toyota is ramped up.

By 2027, US EV sales are seen rising to 4.5 million units, against less than 1.5 million last year. EVs are projected to reach 48% of new passenger vehicle sales by 2030, almost meeting President Biden’s target of 50%, in BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario or ETS, which tracks how current techno-economic trends drive the EV transition with no new policy intervention. This means sales of about 7.7 million EVs in 2030.

The old saying of “ So goes California, so goes the nation ” may very well play out in electric vehicles. The golden state remains a leader in US vehicle electrification, having pushed EVs through the utilization of purchase incentives, charging infrastructure funding and forceful fuel economy standard regulations for years. In 2023, nearly one in four of all vehicles sold in the state were electric. Electric cars will represent 65% of new car sales by 2030, under the ETS, and reach almost 90% by 2040.

EV share of new passenger vehicle sales in the US - Economic Transition Scenario

California is planning to phase-out sales of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 — while still allowing for 20% of new car sales to be plug-in hybrids or PHEVs after that time. The state could once again model what an electric vehicle future looks like for the rest of the country.

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This article first appeared at BloombergNEF on July 2 2024.

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